“Empowering Farmers through Policies: We will work towards reducing all agricultural imports and institute a predictable expo and import policy with a built-in mechanism for encouraging exports and discouraging imports.” — Promise in 2019 BJP Manifesto
An evaluation of the research information below indicates that:
While exports have largely risen albeit with yearly declines (from 2021-22 to 2022-23) according to the Minister of Commerce’s reply, imports have also increased from 2018-19 to 2022-23. For 2022-23, the trade surplus was around USD 10.37 billion, for 2021-22, it was USD 17.86 billion. For 2020-21, it was 9 billion and for 2019-20, it was around 12 billion. There is no clear pattern of decline in the imports and no predictable export and import policy.
It can therefore be concluded that:
The Government’s objectively verifiable performance on reducing agricultural imports is very low; there is no year-on-year increase in trade surplus (exports-imports).
Sources
According to:
1. Question No. 4802 (Unstarred) , Lok Sabha 17,Session 1, Ministry of Commerce, March 29, 2023, “ No targets have been fixed yet for export for the year 2023-24. During the current financial year (Apr. 2022 – January 2023), the agricultural exports have amounted to USD 43.37 billion, registering an increase of 6.04% over the exports of USD 40.90 billion during the corresponding period of the previous financial year i.e April 2021 to January 2022. During the financial year 2021-22, India’s agricultural export touched the highest ever level of USD 50.21 billion.
2. However, data from the Ministry of Commerce site shows that the USD value of agricultural exports was 36.76 billion in 2021-22, up from 30.43 billion the previous year (2020-21) and 23.655 the year before that(2019-20).
3. Data from the Ministry of Commerce cited by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare also shows that imports have grown year on year from 2018-19 to 2021-22. Stabilized according to average currency exchange rates for those years, the numbers are USD 20.9, 21.6, 21.43 and 32.35 billion respectively. The import figure for 2022-23 according to Global Trade Research Initiative (“India’s Agricultural Trade 2023”) stands at USD 33 billion.
Research Results
1. https://eparlib.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/1932518/1/AU4802.pdf
2. https://commerce.gov.in/about-us/divisions/export-products-division/export-products-agriculture/
3. https://agriwelfare.gov.in/en/AgricultureTrade
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